2016年年末，印度曾因为两则消息举国沸腾，一是印度内政国务部长基伦·里吉朱在个人Twitter上发表推文称，“印度已经超越英国，成为继美国、中国、日本和德国之后，GDP全球排名第5位的国家”；二是印度曾预计其2016年GDP增速有望超过中国，成为世界第一。
Two predictions created a buzz in India at the end of 2016. One came in the form of a tweet from Kiren Rijiju, India’s Minister of State for Home Affairs, saying “India overtakes UK & becomes 5th largest GDP after USA, China, Japan & Germany.” The second prediction, made by some in India, was that the country would replace China as the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2016.
不过这两项预测都没有变成现实。1月16日，国际货币基金组织(IMF)发布最新《世界经济展望》报告。据该组织的独立估计,中国2016年经济增速为6.7%,印度为6.6%，英国为2%。如此一来，印度不仅GDP增速可能仍然屈居中国之下，GDP总量也未必能超越英国。
However, neither of the two came true. As the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports in its latest World Economic Outlook, the GDP growth rates of China, India Britain are estimated to be 6.7 percent, 6.6 percent 2 percent, respectively. By these figures, India will probably remain second to China in terms of GDP growth rate remain a smaller economy than Britain.
废钞运动拖累印度经济
Demonetization Drags down India’s Economy
印度经济增速未达预期有其原因。去年11月8日，印度政府突然宣布废除流通中面值500和1000卢比的纸币，导致印度市场中86%的货币量将退出流通。由于印度对现金依赖较强，废钞运动所引发的大规模现金危机会打击印度市场的消费，IMF因此将印度2016年GDP增速由7.1%下调到6.6%。
Several reasons lie behind India’s failure to meet its economic expectations. Following an announcement made by the Indian government on November 8, 2016, the 500 1,000 rupee notes, representing 86 percent of the country’s circulating currency, were removed as legal tender. The wide-ranging cash crisis resulting from this demonetization put a brake on India’s consumption, which relies heavily on cash. Thus, the IMF has downgraded the prospects of India’s economic growth in 2016 from 7.1percent to 6.6 percent.
与此同时，英国脱欧所带来的负面效应没有预期强烈，英国GDP表现仍较为强劲，英国经济基本面也具有韧性，这将有利于英国与欧盟的谈判，也将给英镑提供一些支撑。基于这些判断，IMF将英国2016年的GDP增速上调到2%。
In comparison, Brexit hasn’t taken as harsh a toll on the British economy as was expected. Since the fundamentals of Britain’s economy remain flexible, its strong GDP growth will support its currency grant Britain more bargaining chips in its negotiations with the European Union (EU). Therefore, the IMF has raised the prospect of Britain’s GDP growth rate in 2016 to 2 percent.
此消彼长之下，世界经济的整体格局未受到太大冲击。当然，近十年，印度的GDP总量增长了100.13%，由2007年的1.18万亿美元增长到2016年的2.37万亿美元，印度与英国之间的差距确实在缩小。2016年英国的GDP总量预计为2.90万亿美元，而中国的GDP总量预计将达到11.9万亿美元，虽同为世界人口最多的大国，印度GDP想要与中国比肩还需要时间。
The dynamics of the global economic landscape have not drastically changed. In the past decade, India’s GDP has risen by 100.13 percent, from US$1.18 trillion in 2007 to US$2.37 trillion in 2016, narrowing the GDP gap between it Britain. In 2016, Britain’s economy is estimated to have reached US$2.9 trillion, China’s GDP US$11.9 trillion. As one of the two most populous countries in the world, India will need more time to catch up with China on an economic scale.
印度经济进入良性周期
India’s Economy Has Entered a Positive Circle
印度的内需主导型经济具备抵御外部风险的能力。与中国不同，印度经济增长的主要动力不是投资和对外贸易，而是国内的私人消费。长期以来, 印度对政府公务人员、军人、国企员工、教师和科研人员等都实行比较高的工资制度，他们和私营企业主一起构成印度的中产阶层，成为印度国内消费的主要力量。而国内消费支出的稳定增长, 为印度企业创造了稳定的国内市场。
India’s economy, relying mainly on domestic demand, is resistant to external risks. China’s economy relies on investment global trade, while India’s is dependent on private consumption. India has adhered to a system of high salaries for civil servants, soldiers, employees of state-owned enterprises, teachers, researchers. As members of the middle class in India, those in these professions, along with owners of private companies, acfor most of the country’s purchasing power. The steady growth of domestic consumption has created a steady domestic market for Indian enterprises.
印度强大的服务业也为经济增长提供支撑。在印度的经济增加值构成中，52.98%来自于服务业，制造业仅为30.01%，农业占比为17.01%。
India’s powerful service industry strongly supports its economic growth. In terms of their total value added to the Indian economy, the service industry accounts for 52.98 percent, manufacturing only 30.01 percent, agriculture 17.01 percent.
印度的这种经济结构，一方面使其经济增长不依赖外部市场，国内就可以提供足够的动力；另一方面也导致印度对进口能源的高度依赖，以及长期的经常项目赤字与财政赤字，这导致印度经济增长具有高波动性。从1992年开始，中国经济经历了一个高速增长的长周期，而印度却经历了五到六个经济周期。事实上，就在2014年印度总理莫迪上台之前，印度经常账户赤字占GDP之比一度高达4.8%，险些进入周期低谷。
India’s economic structure means its growth is independent of influences from the external market, because the internal market can offer enough fuel of its own. However, this also leads to India’s high dependence on energy imports, a long-term current acdeficit the fiscal deficit. Since 1992, China’s economy has enjoyed a long period of rapid growth, but India has witnessed five to six growth troughs, resulting in the high volatility of the South Asian power’s economy. In fact, before Prime Minister Modi took office in 2014, India’s current acdeficit to GDP was once as high as 4.8 percent, causing India’s economy to teeter on the brink of another trough.
印度未来经济发展取决于改革成效
India’s Future Economic Development Depends on the Effectiveness of Reform
2017年的印度经济改革包括去货币化以及商品和服务税法案的实施，但仅这两项改革并不能改变印度经济增长中的诸多结构性问题。
India’s economic reforms in 2017 will include the implementation of demonetization the goods services tax act, but these two reforms alone cannot overcome the structural challenges to India’s economic growth.
首先，莫迪上台前，印度对外资的歧视使印度经济发展严重缺乏资金。印度总理莫迪访华时曾会见了25位中国著名企业家，随后亲自推动放宽了对“国家安全调查政策”的管制，使印度的投资环境有所改善。目前，印度在公路、铁路、通讯、电站等方面的公共基础设施亟待升级，需要吸引外资与国内私人投资。
Firstly, before Modi came to power, India’s discrimination against foreign investment had resulted in a serious shortage of funds in India’s economic development. Prime Minister Modi met with 25 prominent Chinese entrepreneurs when visiting China, then worked personally on easing regulations on national security investigations. Since then, the investment environment in India has improved. At present, India’s public infrastructure, including roads, railways, telecommunications, power stations many other areas, urgently needs to be upgraded in order to attract foreign investment domestic private investment. In the meantime, India also hopes to receive foreign investment in infrastructure construction.
其次，印度贫富差距过大导致无法释放人口红利。印度的教育资源集中在高等教育方面，集中力量培养了一批高精尖科技人才，而基础教育投入严重不足，这导致了贫富差距进一步拉大和阶层固化，使得印度在向美国硅谷输出大量工程师的同时，也拥有世界上最多的文盲人口。
Secondly, the overgrown wealth gap in India has blocked the country from reaping the gains of its demographic dividend. India has been investing its resources in higher education has cultivated a number of top-class specialists, but has simultaneously failed to provide sufficient investment in basic education, which has led to a still-widening wealth gap. Therefore, India, a country that produces a large number of engineers for Silicon Valley, is also home to the largest illiterate population in the world.
印度绝大部分劳动力素质不高，同时制造业不发达，限制了分工专业化和工人熟练水平的提升，使印度这个人口大国的平均劳动力产出水平始终不高，人口红利没有得到充分释放。这方面印度需要的不仅仅是政策方面的改进，更需要社会文化层面的更新。
The relatively low quality of the majority of labor force in India the underdeveloped manufacturing industry impose restrictions on labor division specialization, prevent workers from improving their skills. In a country with a low labor output a congested demographic dividend, India needs not only an improvement in its policies, but also reforms in social cultural areas.
近几年，印度经济的强劲表现确实让人眼前一亮，莫迪政府开启了吸引外资的大门，也让投资者看到了广阔的前景，印度有可能成为继中国之后下一个吸引全球投资的热门国家。但是印度经济结构的痼疾、复杂的宗教和文化将给印度经济的起飞带来诸多变数，这与三十年前的中国完全不同。
In recent years, the strong performance of India’s economy has been eye-catching. Modi has opened the door to foreign investment invited investors to see the country’s opportunities for themselves. India has the potential to become the next favorite to attract global investment, after China. But the chronic downsides of India’s economic structure, as well as its complex religious cultural problems, cast doubt on the feasibility of India’s economic take-off—a situation completely different from that of China 30 years ago.
